politics · resolves 2026-12-10
Will a Pew Research Center poll released by 2026‑12‑10 show that Trump voters still intend to vote for him in the 2028 primary?
64%chance, per Kāla▼ 7 pts since the last update
Why
Base‑rate: Historically, a large majority of Trump’s 2020‑2024 voters have remained loyal, so polls usually show 70‑80 % intending to back him in any future primary. Latest evidence: Recent polls in October 2026 show Trump’s overall approval has fallen to the mid‑30 % range and likely‑voter preference leans Democratic, but they do not measure the subset of “Trump voters”; anecdotal reports suggest his core base is still enthusiastic and active.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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