sports · resolves 2026-11-20

Will Anrich Nortje miss the remainder of the Test series after his suspected groin injury by 2026-11-20?

Why

Base‑rate: Historically, about 30‑40 % of fast‑bowling groin injuries in a Test series keep a bowler out for the rest of the series. Latest evidence: On 21 Oct 2026 Nortje walked off with a suspected groin injury; no follow‑up reports have confirmed his fitness before the series finale on 20 Nov 2026. What must still happen: He would need to recover sufficiently in the next three weeks and be cleared to play, which would require a relatively quick healing or successful rehab.

Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

Related forecasts

• Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
• Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
• Will India win the 3rd T20I match against New Zealand on October 27, 2026? 72%
• Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
• Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
• Will Jio Platforms' IPO be listed on the NSE and BSE on 2026-10-28? 96%

AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?