politics · resolves 2026-10-27
Will Brazil's presidential runoff on 2026-10-27 be won by Lula?
45%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Incumbent presidents in Brazil win re‑election roughly 60 % of the time, but recent elections have been unusually volatile. The latest reporting (Oct 22‑25) describes a neck‑and‑neck runoff with many polls and analysts suggesting Flávio Bolsonaro may have a slight edge, though the race remains within the margin of error. Lula still needs a decisive swing among undecided voters and high turnout among his base on Oct 27 to pull ahead.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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