economy · resolves 2026-10-31
Will China's Official Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 2026-10-31, be above 50.0?
73%chance, per Kāla
Why
September’s PMI was 50.1, just above the expansion threshold, and recent data show continued strength in high‑tech and equipment manufacturing. With no strong contrary signals, the odds favor the October reading staying above 50.
Based on 27 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-22 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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