economy · resolves 2026-12-19
Will copper’s price increase by at least 5% more than gold’s price increase over the period from 2026‑09‑19 to 2026‑12‑19?
71%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically copper’s price movements are more volatile than gold’s, and over a three‑month window it typically out‑performs gold by a modest margin (≈30 % of the time). Recent evidence shows copper up about 15.8 % year‑to‑date as of 20 Oct 2026, while gold has been falling (e.g., a drop of roughly 1 % on 23 Oct 2026) and is expected to stay under pressure from higher interest‑rate expectations.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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