business · resolves 2026-11-10

Will the WTI crude oil price breach $115 per barrel on 2026-11-10?

Why

Base rate: Historically, WTI breaching $115 within a month is uncommon, giving a baseline probability of roughly 10‑15 %. Recent evidence: By 23 Oct 2026 WTI was trading around $100‑101 while Brent had just topped $114‑115, indicating strong upward pressure but WTI still lagging about $10‑15 behind the target. To reach $115 by 10 Nov, WTI would need a sustained weekly gain of roughly 5‑6 % amid ongoing geopolitical supply fears, which is possible but not yet evident.

Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

Related forecasts

• Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
• Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
• Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
• Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
• Will Jio Platforms' IPO be listed on the NSE and BSE on 2026-10-28? 96%
• Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission extend the civic election nomination deadline beyond 2026-10-28? 82%

AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?