politics · resolves 2026-12-01
Will Eknath Shinde’s “vote theft” claim be formally investigated by the Election Commission by 2026-12-01?
14%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, the Election Commission of India initiates formal investigations into “vote theft” allegations only in a small minority of cases, roughly 5‑10 % of such high‑profile political claims.
Based on 9 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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