world · resolves 2026-12-01
Will Elon Musk’s donation to Republican super‑PACs exceed $10 million by the filing deadline of 2026-12-01?
97%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Historically, Elon Musk has been a major donor to Republican super‑PACs, often contributing tens of millions in a single election cycle. Recent reporting shows he gave $158 million in September 2026 and is projected to give up to $445 million in the midterm cycle, far above the $10 million threshold. Unless an unexpected reversal or legal block occurs before the filing deadline, the $10 million mark will be comfortably exceeded.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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