economy · resolves 2026-12-15
Will Eurozone bond yields exceed 4.0% again before 2026-12-15?
97%chance, per Kāla▲ 1 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, Eurozone 10‑year government bond yields have been above 4 % for much of the past decade, giving a baseline probability of roughly 70 % that they will breach 4 % again in any given year. Latest evidence: As of 21‑23 Oct 2026, French 10‑year yields are already near 5 % and other Eurozone yields have risen sharply, indicating the threshold has been crossed and is likely to be revisited before mid‑December.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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