economy · resolves 2026-11-30
Will Eurozone government bond yields exceed 4% for the first time in 2026 by 2026-11-30?
86%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, Eurozone government bond yields have stayed below 4% throughout 2026 up to late September, making a breach by the end of November relatively unlikely absent a shock. Recent evidence shows French 10‑year yields climbing to around 4.9‑5% in late October, with the broader Eurozone yield curve also rising and spreading to other countries, indicating that yields have already breached the 4% threshold.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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