world · resolves 2026-11-25
Will France impose a nationwide curfew on 2026-11-25 in response to protests?
Why
Base rate: Historically, France rarely imposes nationwide curfews, especially on a specific future date, so the prior probability is low. The most recent evidence (Guardian live blogs from 19‑23 Oct 2026) reports only partial curfews and heightened police deployments, with no mention of a planned nationwide curfew for 25 Nov 2026. For a nationwide curfew to occur on that date, an official announcement would still need to be made by the French government between now and then.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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