India · economy · resolves 2026-12-20
Will gold prices in India exceed ₹1.48 lakh per 10 g on any trading day before 2026-12-20?
78%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, gold in India has only occasionally breached the ₹1.48 lakh per 10 g level, so the prior probability of such a move in any given short‑term window is modest (≈10‑15%). Latest evidence: As of 19 Oct 2026, the December 2026 gold futures contract was already trading above ₹1.48 lakh per 10 g, indicating market expectations that spot prices will reach or exceed that level before the contract expires on 20 Dec 2026.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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