economy · resolves 2026-10-29
Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to its main refinancing operations rate at its Governing Council meeting on October 29, 2026?
10%chance, per Kāla
Why
All available evidence points to the ECB holding its main refinancing operations rate steady on 29 October 2026. Market pricing shows a high probability of no change, and analysts’ consensus is for a pause. A small chance of a surprise hike remains.
Based on 37 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-17 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.
Related forecasts
- Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
- Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
- Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
- Will Jio Platforms' IPO be listed on the NSE and BSE on 2026-10-28? 96%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission extend the civic election nomination deadline beyond 2026-10-28? 82%
AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?