economy · resolves 2026-10-28
Will the U.S. Federal Reserve increase the federal funds rate at its FOMC meeting concluding on October 28, 2026?
34%chance, per Kāla
Why
As of Oct 17 2026, market consensus and recent Fed commentary point to a pause despite sticky inflation. The probability of a 25‑bp hike is modest, estimated around 30‑35%.
Based on 37 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-17 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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