business · resolves 2026-11-15
Will IBM report a year‑over‑year revenue decline of more than 5% in its Q3 2026 earnings released on 2026-11-14?
30%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, about 30 % of large, diversified tech companies experience a year‑over‑year revenue decline greater than 5 % in a given quarter. Current evidence: There are no available reports, previews, or earnings summaries for IBM’s Q3 2026 results in the sources provided, so nothing shifts the base rate either way.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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