India · economy · resolves 2026-11-15
Will India's merchandise trade deficit for October 2026, as officially released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on November 15, 2026, be larger than $20 billion?
90%chance, per Kāla
Why
Given recent monthly deficits of $26‑30 bn and October’s historical pattern of large deficits (27‑42 bn), the October 2026 merchandise trade deficit is very likely to exceed $20 bn.
Based on 24 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-23 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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