India · economy · resolves 2026-12-06
Will India's soybean output for the 2026‑27 season exceed 12 million tonnes as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture on 2026-12-05?
3%chance, per Kāla
Why
India’s historical soybean production has been around 0.8–1.1 million tonnes (8–11 lakh tonnes) per year, so a 12 million‑tonne harvest would be an order‑of‑magnitude jump. The latest forecasts (e.g., 107.9 lakh tonnes for Kharif 2026) indicate a slight decline, not a surge. To exceed 12 million tonnes, production would need to more than double the current outlook, which appears highly unlikely.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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