world · resolves 2026-10-31
Will Iran’s nuclear facilities remain fully operational with no enriched uranium shipments after the statement by Mohsen Rezaei on 2026-10-31?
78%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically Iran has kept its nuclear facilities running while retaining enriched uranium domestically, so the default expectation is that operations continue. Latest evidence: Recent statements (Oct 20‑21) from security chief Mohsen Rezaei explicitly rule out any export of enriched uranium, and there have been no reports of facility shutdowns or interruptions up to Oct 23.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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