politics · resolves 2026-12-19
Will the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics' national Gen‑Z voter survey, released before 2026‑12‑19, show at least 30% support for far‑right parties?
66%chance, per Kāla
Why
Historically, Israeli Gen‑Z support for far‑right parties has been modest (around 10‑15%). Recent reporting (e.g., the BBC piece on 20 Oct 2026) says “Gen Z voters are drawn to the far right,” suggesting a sizable shift that could push support above 30%. The only remaining uncertainty is whether the CBS survey will be published before 19 Dec 2026 and reflect that shift.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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