economy · resolves 2026-11-16
Will Japan's first preliminary estimate of Q3 2026 GDP growth, released by the Cabinet Office on Monday, November 16, 2026, show an annualized real growth rate below 1.2%?
85%chance, per Kāla
Why
Forecasts and recent economic data suggest Japan's Q3 2026 preliminary GDP estimate will be under the 1.2% annualized threshold. Most institutional projections point to growth around 0.5‑0.7% annualized, well below 1.2%.
Based on 35 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-24 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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