economy · resolves 2026-11-12
Will Japan's Nikkei index fall below 30,000 points on 2026-11-12?
30%chance, per Kāla
Why
The historical baseline suggests that, given typical market volatility, there is roughly a 30 % chance that the Nikkei will dip below 30,000 on any given day in the next few weeks. No specific news or market data from the provided sources indicates a clear catalyst that would markedly increase or decrease that likelihood for 12 Nov 2026. Therefore the forecast remains close to the base‑rate estimate.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?