world · resolves 2026-11-15
Will Kenya report a tenth Ebola case by 2026-11-15?
42%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Ebola outbreaks in Kenya have historically been limited; once a handful of cases appear, aggressive containment usually prevents rapid escalation. Latest evidence shows Kenya has nine confirmed cases as of 20 Oct 2026, with two deaths and no confirmed community transmission, but the situation remains fluid and contact tracing is ongoing.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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