economy · resolves 2026-11-05
Will the KOSPI close at least 5% lower than its close on 2026-11-04 on 2026-11-05?
7%chance, per Kāla
Why
The daily probability that the KOSPI moves down 5% or more is historically low (around 1 % on any given day). Recent news shows the index has already fallen about 40 % since its June peak, indicating heightened volatility and a bearish environment, which raises the chance of a large one‑day drop. However, a further 5 % decline on the next trading day would still require a sharp negative catalyst or continued panic selling.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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