politics · resolves 2026-10-28
Will Lula's supporters' rally on 2026-10-28 exceed 100,000 attendees?
78%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Large political rallies in Brazil’s capital often draw tens of thousands, and only a few historic events have surpassed the 100 000 mark. Latest evidence: Multiple reports from 24 Oct 2026 describe “tens of thousands” and even “more than one million” Lula supporters gathering on the eve of the runoff, indicating a very strong mobilization that is likely to continue into the 28 Oct rally.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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