politics · resolves 2026-11-25
Will Mike Bloomberg’s $80 million donation to Democrats be confirmed by the New York Times on 2026-11-25?
89%chance, per Kāla▲ 20 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, the New York Times confirms major political donations within a few weeks, but not all such reports are guaranteed, giving a baseline chance of about 30 %. Latest evidence: Recent articles from October 20 2026 (Mint, CNBC) already report Bloomberg’s $80 million donation, citing the NYT as a source, indicating the NYT is aware and likely to publish a formal confirmation.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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