business · resolves 2026-11-02
Will Netflix’s stock price close above $550 on the day of its earnings release on 2026-11-02?
Why
Base rate: Historically, Netflix’s earnings days see a roughly 50 % chance of the stock closing above a 10 % gain from the prior close, which translates to about a 0.5 probability of ending above a $550 threshold given recent price levels. Latest evidence: Options pricing on 2026‑10‑20 indicates the market is pricing in a 9 % post‑earnings move—the highest since Q3 2022—suggesting traders expect a modest upside but not a full 10 % jump needed to comfortably clear $550.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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