economy · resolves 2026-11-25

Will oil prices close below $80 per barrel on 2026-11-25 following diplomatic progress?

Why

Base rate: Historically, when oil is trading above $110, a drop to below $80 within a month is rare (≈5 % chance). Recent news shows prices climbing to $115‑$117 amid geopolitical tension, with no clear diplomatic breakthroughs that would sharply cut demand or boost supply. For oil to fall below $80 by 2026‑11‑25, a major diplomatic resolution (e.g., end of Iran‑US hostilities) plus a significant supply shock would need to occur, which has not yet materialized.

Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

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AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?