economy · resolves 2026-11-01

Will OPEC+ announce a change in crude oil production targets for December 2026 during their meeting scheduled for November 1, 2026?

70%chance, per Kāla

Why

It is moderately likely that OPEC+ will announce a change in crude oil production targets for December 2026. The alliance has a history of adjusting targets based on market conditions, and current forecasts show significant discrepancies in demand outlooks between OPEC and the IEA, alongside ongoing geopolitical disruptions affecting actual production. While targets were maintained for November, the dynamic market situation suggests a potential adjustment for December.

Based on 32 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-22 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

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