world · resolves 2026-11-25
Will President Zelensky confirm that US intelligence sharing remains active in a press briefing on 2026-11-25?
72%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, Ukrainian leaders have tended to publicly affirm ongoing US intelligence cooperation, giving a baseline probability around 0.6. Latest evidence: Multiple BBC reports from 20‑21 Oct 2026 show Zelensky stating that “intelligence sharing works now” after recent diplomatic talks, indicating a strong likelihood he will continue to confirm the arrangement in a later briefing.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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