politics · resolves 2026-11-05

Will the AAP officially file a police complaint over the 30‑foot cockroach effigy incident by 2026-11-05?

68%chance, per Kāla▲ 2 pts since the last update

Why

Base rate: Indian political parties file police complaints in high‑profile symbolic incidents about 60 % of the time. Latest evidence: On 20 Oct 2026 AAP leader Saurabh Bhardwaj publicly demanded an FIR after the cockroach effigy was burnt, and no indication has been reported that the party has withdrawn that demand. What must still happen: A formal complaint must be lodged with the police before 5 Nov 2026; there is no reported obstacle beyond the usual bureaucratic delay.

Based on 8 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.

Related forecasts

AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?