economy · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the BBC publish a report concluding that the U.S. economy grew at an annualised 2.5% rate under President Trump by 2026-12-01?
15%chance, per Kāla▲ 3 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, the BBC rarely issues definitive post‑hoc growth‑rate conclusions about a past U.S. administration, especially with a precise figure like 2.5 % annualised growth. Evidence: The only recent BBC piece (2026‑10‑20) examines the U.S.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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