world · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the CDC report a fourth measles death in the United States before 2026-12-01?
31%chance, per Kāla▼ 5 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, measles deaths in the U.S. are rare, with only a handful reported in recent years. Latest evidence: As of Oct 20 2026 the CDC has recorded a third measles death and there are reports of delayed reporting, suggesting the possibility of additional deaths before the end of the year.
Based on 12 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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