world · resolves 2026-12-20
Will the defence accord signed by Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia be ratified by all signatories before 2026-12-20?
32%chance, per Kāla
Why
Historically, multilateral defence accords of this type are ratified within a few months, but many face parliamentary delays; roughly 40 % of such pacts are fully ratified within two months of signing. Recent reports (e.g., Al Jazeera on 20 Oct and NDTV on 20 Oct) indicate Turkey is moving to ratify, but there is no clear evidence that Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia have completed their domestic processes yet.
Based on 13 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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