politics · resolves 2026-11-30
Will the Democratic Party hold a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the November 3, 2026 Midterm Elections?
21%chance, per Kāla
Why
Republicans currently hold a slim 218‑214 edge, and Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control. Historical patterns show the president’s party usually loses seats in midterms, especially when approval is below 50%, which is the case for President Biden. Given these factors, the odds favor a Republican hold, with roughly a 30% chance the Democrats flip the chamber.
Based on 32 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-19 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.
Related forecasts
- Will the Delhi High Court grant a further 3‑day custody extension for NTK functionary Karthika after 2026-10-24? 67%
- Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
- Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
- Will the Indian Ministry of Railways publish the revised parcel‑fare discount schedule for the festive season by 2026-10-27? 42%
- Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?