economy · resolves 2026-11-15
Will the French 10‑year bond yield stay above 5% on 2026-11-15?
62%chance, per Kāla
Why
The historical base‑rate for a 10‑year French sovereign yield staying above a newly breached 5 % level for the next month is roughly 55 % (most spikes revert within a few weeks, but about half persist). Recent reports from late October show the yield has just breached 5 % amid severe fiscal‑policy deadlock and widespread protests, and there is no sign of a quick political resolution or a major market‑stabilising event in the near term.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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