world · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the Gambia complete the first disbursement to victims of Yahya Jammeh's rule from the US mansion proceeds by 2026-12-01?
45%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, about 30 % of promised reparations in similar contexts are actually paid out within a two‑month window after funds become available. Latest evidence: As of 20‑21 Oct 2026 the Gambian government has confirmed receipt of the $2.5 million from the US mansion sale, but no announcement of a disbursement schedule or first payment has been made.
Based on 2 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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