India · business · resolves 2026-12-10
Will the Indian government approve a new policy to increase the cap on foreign portfolio investment in Indian equities to 30% before 2026-12-10?
15%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, major changes to the foreign portfolio investment cap in Indian equities have been infrequent, suggesting a low baseline probability (~20%) that such a policy shift would occur within a short window. Recent news articles from late October 2026 discuss foreign portfolio flows, rupee pressure, and investment sentiment but contain no indication of an imminent government decision to raise the cap to 30 %.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-19 · 6 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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