world · resolves 2026-12-08
Will the Indonesian authorities release a final accident report on the ferry fire by 2026-12-08?
22%chance, per Kāla▼ 5 pts since the last update
Why
Base‑rate: Indonesian transport accident investigations typically take several months, and final reports are often issued well after the incident date. Evidence: The only available reports (e.g., the Al Jazeera story on 20 Oct) describe the fire and rescue but give no indication that authorities have set a deadline or are close to completing a final report.
Based on 7 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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