economy · resolves 2026-11-02
Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, released by the Institute for Supply Management on November 2, 2026, be above 50.0?
96%chance, per Kāla
Why
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in expansion for nine consecutive months, with the September 2026 reading at 54.5%. While cost pressures and rising interest rates pose headwinds, the overall trend, strong new orders, and positive industrial production figures suggest continued expansion. Prediction markets and economic forecasts also largely anticipate a reading above 50.0 for October.
Based on 28 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-24 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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