energy · resolves 2026-12-07
Will the Jackdaw North Sea gasfield receive final government approval by 2026-12-07?
97%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, UK government approvals for North Sea gas projects are granted within a few weeks once a decision is announced, so the chance of a final approval being completed by early December is high. Recent evidence shows that on 21 October 2026 the UK government publicly approved the Jackdaw gasfield, with multiple articles reporting the decision and its immediate implementation.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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