science · resolves 2026-12-15
Will the Jackdaw North Sea gasfield receive final government approval for drilling by 2026-12-15?
97%chance, per Kāla▲ 5 pts since the last update
Why
The historical base‑rate for UK government approvals of North Sea gas projects by a set deadline is roughly 30 %. Recent reporting shows that the Jackdaw field was officially approved by the government on 21 October 2026, well before the 15 December 2026 cut‑off. Since the approval has already been granted, the only remaining condition is the formal issuance of any final paperwork, which is expected to follow shortly.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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