business · resolves 2026-11-20
Will the LBMA spot gold price close at least 2% lower on 2026-11-20 compared to its close on 2026-11-19?
8%chance, per Kāla
Why
Gold’s daily price changes of 2% + are uncommon, occurring roughly 5 % of trading days historically. Recent market commentary (e.g., Oct 20‑21 Mint articles) notes that gold has been under pressure from rising oil‑driven inflation expectations and a potentially tighter Fed stance, suggesting a bearish bias into November.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.
Related forecasts
- Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
- Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
- Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
- Will Jio Platforms' IPO be listed on the NSE and BSE on 2026-10-28? 96%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission extend the civic election nomination deadline beyond 2026-10-28? 82%
AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?