world · resolves 2026-12-15
Will the Nigeria Ebola case be declared contained by WHO by 2026-12-15?
35%chance, per Kāla▲ 7 pts since the last update
Why
Base‑rate: Historically, WHO has declared Ebola outbreaks contained within 2–3 months after the last confirmed case when swift isolation and contact‑tracing succeed. Latest evidence: Nigeria identified its first case on 20 Oct 2026; authorities have isolated the patient, begun aggressive contact tracing, and the Africa CDC is coordinating a regional response, suggesting the chain of transmission could be broken quickly.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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