India · economy · resolves 2026-12-19
Will the RBI raise the repo rate by at least 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, which will occur before 2026‑12‑19?
71%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, the RBI has raised rates in 25‑basis‑point steps and, after the October 2026 meeting, signalled that further hikes were likely in the December review. Latest evidence: Minutes and market commentary from October 21‑22 note expectations of another 25‑bps increase in December (and possibly February), with inflation still a concern and no clear shift to rate cuts.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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