politics, elections · resolves 2026-11-15
Will the Republican Party hold a majority of seats in the U.S. Senate for the 119th Congress, following the November 3, 2026 Midterm Elections?
41%chance, per Kāla
Why
Forecasts from Decision Desk HQ, The Hill, and Kalshi all give Democrats a better than 50% chance of taking control of the Senate, implying Republicans are less likely to keep their majority. The best estimate puts the probability of a Republican majority at roughly 44%.
Based on 27 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-18 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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