politics · resolves 2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party secure a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, with the outcome officially declared by November 4, 2026?
12%chance, per Kāla
Why
The Republican Party is highly likely to secure a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Historically, the incumbent president's party, which is currently Republican, tends to lose seats in midterms, but the current political climate, marked by President Trump's low approval ratings, economic dissatisfaction, and an unpopular war, suggests a significant backlash against the incumbent party.
Based on 30 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-22 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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