India · economy · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the retail price of black pepper in India, as published by the Spices Board of India, rise above INR 150 per kilogram by 2026-12-01?
62%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, retail black‑pepper prices in India have hovered around ₹120‑₹130 per kg, with only occasional spikes above ₹150 per kg. Recent reports of uneven monsoon rains and El Niño‑related crop stress suggest spice prices—including black pepper—are being pushed higher than usual. If the weather‑related supply squeeze persists through November, the price could breach ₹150 per kg by 1 December 2026.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 5 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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