economy · resolves 2026-11-10
Will the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026, when released on November 10, 2026, indicate a year-over-year increase greater than 3.5%?
78%chance, per Kāla
Why
September 2026 CPI was 3.7% YoY and several forecasts (Longforecast, IMF, MUFG) project October around 3.7% or higher. This makes a year‑over‑year increase above 3.5% more probable than not.
Based on 34 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-19 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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