world · resolves 2026-11-20
Will the U.S. Energy Secretary formally reject the Rosebank oilfield project by 2026-11-20?
27%chance, per Kāla▲ 10 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, U.S. Energy Secretaries rarely intervene directly to reject foreign oil projects, so the prior probability of a formal rejection by late November 2026 is low (≈ 5‑10%). Latest evidence: All recent reports (e.g., Guardian articles from 21‑22 Oct 2026) discuss the UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh’s stance on the Rosebank oilfield; there is no mention of any action or statement by the U.S.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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