business · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approve the first tokenised stock trading platform in the U.S. by 2026-12-01?
18%chance, per Kāla
Why
The historical base rate for the SEC approving a novel tokenised‑stock trading platform by a specific near‑term deadline is low, as the agency has been cautious and has not yet cleared any such U.S. platform. The recent news sources from late October 2026 contain no mention of an SEC filing, hearing, or tentative approval for a tokenised‑stock exchange, indicating no new concrete progress toward approval.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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